Before I get into my guessing game, let’s look back at my regular season predictions . I got eight of the twelve playoff teams right, including five of six in the NL. Of course, the Mets were my one miss, but my World Series prediction of the Dodgers beating the Yankees is right there.
Now we look forward to what I expect will be a great postseason. My theme for my picks will lead us right back to where I was in March: pitching!
Wild Card - American League
We start in the American League, where we have two series with completely different vibes.
First, you have the Astros facing the White Sox in what feels like the JV matchup. The Astros won the division on the last day by getting to .500, and the White Sox were barely better, but snuck into a Wild Card spot. The White Sox coming from where they did makes them a great story, while the Astros being the Astros and finding themselves here after this season feels dirty. The Astros have the best player in the series in MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez and the better pitching, which isn’t saying much. I trust Josh Hader closing games, and that is why my prediction is Astros in 2.
In the grown-up series with Boston and New York, we get “baseball’s best rivalry”, which I put in quotes because it really isn’t right now. (We actually might get to see a series with the current best rivalry in the NL later on.) As I said, my theme for this postseason is pitching, which makes this series easy to pick. You say the Yankees don’t have Judge? I say no problem. They have two starting pitchers who I would take over any starter in Boston. Match that up with an offense from Boston that does not scare you, and I think we have another two-game sweep. Prediction: Yankees in 2.
Wild Card - National League
First up, we have the Phillies and the Braves. The Phillies would have been my pick going into the last week of the season, but the way they finished down the stretch, and having to burn Aaron Nola/Zack Wheeler just to make the playoffs on the last day of the year made me change my mind. My reason for picking against the Phillies is simple: a starting rotation in flux with a bad bullpen on top of it. The Braves are steady on offense with one of the NL’s best pitchers going in Game 1 in Chris Sale. Prediction: Braves in 3.
Let’s head out west to my favorite of the four Wild Card series: the Cubs heading to San Diego to face the Padres. The Cubs have baseball’s breakout star this year in Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA), and the Padres are still one of the most exciting teams to watch, especially when playing big games at home. Neither team has a starting rotation that will put fear into you, and this gets amplified with the Cubs losing trade deadline pickup Kevin Gausman to injury. Even if you call the starting pitching a wash, I feel a lot better if I’m San Diego when this series moves to the bullpens. At the plate, there are guys I love watching on both sides; PCA, Seiya Suzuki, and Alex Bregman in Chicago, versus Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill on the Padres. Prediction: Padres in 3.
Division Series - American League
A division series between Houston and Cleveland… sure, why not? I guess I have to pick a team to win here. Cleveland has the pitching advantage, while Houston has the advantage at the plate (which isn’t saying much). I really don’t love either of these teams, so I have no real feel for what this matchup might bring. I am going to pick Cleveland, as they have a solid starting rotation with some depth. I don’t feel great about it, because no matter who Houston throws out to pitch, my confidence in Cleveland finding ways to score is not high. Houston’s ability to hit the long ball could prove me wrong, unlike Cleveland. That said, Prediction: Cleveland in 5.
Now we get to have some fun with the Yankees and Rays. I love the way Tampa Bay plays and absolutely loved watching them play baseball this season. The Yankees, however, are a train that stays on the track no matter who plays and who doesn’t. Over the last three years, their win totals are basically the same, and once again they find themselves deep in the postseason conversation. To me, the key to this series will be the Yankees’ top starters, Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole. I know Cole has struggled at times coming back from injury, but I trust him to pick it up in the biggest spots. My guess is we also see Aaron Judge back in the lineup in this series, though that wouldn’t change my pick anyway. It is so hard to win in the playoffs when you rely on manufacturing runs the way Tampa does. When every pitch is high-leverage, you need a few guys who can change the game with one swing. Even without Judge, the Yankees can do that. Prediction: Yankees in 4.
Division Series - National League
The Braves and Dodgers will meet again. The Dodgers’ lineup is filled with big names, but they have struggled as a whole during the second half of the season. What the Dodgers do have is starting pitching, and a lot of it. Even with Shohei Ohtani just hitting, they can simply send out another top-line starter. What the Dodgers don’t have is a closer you can trust. They went out and signed Edwin Díaz to finish out games, and it has not worked out very well between injuries and inconsistency. He finished the year with a few good outings, but… meh? As a Mets fan who watched Díaz a lot, even while he put up numbers his last two years in NY, he was never quite that same guy from the 2022 pre-injury run. On the flip side, Mookie Betts, who hasn’t looked like himself for most of the last two years, had a great September, and the Dodgers need him here. The Braves have constants with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson, plus a top-line starter in Sale. This is shaping up to be a great series, but I think the pitching depth of the Dodgers will win out in a long battle. Prediction: Dodgers in 5.
Another series that excites me will be the Padres and the Brewers. Like Tampa in the AL, Milwaukee has played a style of baseball that we were told can’t win anymore. No power? No problem! That said, like Tampa, it catches up to them here just as it has in previous playoff runs. The best chance for Milwaukee is “The Miz”—how much can Jacob Misiorowski pitch in this series? The overall key to this series will be the Padres’ pen, which could be the best in baseball. Shortening the game with a great bullpen and having guys who can swing for the fences when needed is why the best regular-season team will be sent packing. Prediction: Padres in 4.
Championship Series
The Yankees and Guardians meet again, and like in past years, I think it goes the same way. The Yankees are a flawed but good team, while the Guardians are a .500-type team with a low upside and a bigger downside. This seems like an easy pick given how I look at postseason baseball. Cleveland will play hard and try to make it interesting, which is why I think they can win a couple of games, but it will never really be in doubt. The Yankees’ bullpen scares me a bit, but I don’t think Cleveland is good enough for that to matter. Prediction: Yankees in 6.
Now we get to the series that excites me most: Dodgers vs. Padres. Baseball’s best rivalry over the last few years with a chance to go to the World Series? Yes, please! There is legit hate between the Dodgers and Padres, and there will be fireworks on and off the field. The Dodgers’ starting pitching depth vs. the Padres’ bullpen is where this series will be won or lost. I want to pick the Padres, and even though I am not, this series is going 7 games so anything can happen. Kyle Tucker will show why the Dodgers paid him this offseason, and that will carry Los Angeles back to the Fall Classic. Prediction: Dodgers in 7.
World Series
We are left with a rematch of the 2024 World Series: Dodgers vs. Yankees.
The Yankees will quickly realize they are no longer playing American League teams, and the Dodgers’ depth both on the mound and at the plate will give them another championship. Can the Yankees win? Of course, and it wouldn’t be some massive upset either. The Dodgers’ big names have struggled for big parts of the season, just look at the second half of the year for 2024 World Series hero Freddie Freeman and Kyle Tucker. We’ll get a little more drama than two years ago, but my final call stays the same. Prediction: Dodgers in 6.